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We have hit the 1.27 billion mark. This only means that we are only less
than three quarters short of 2 billion. In 2011 we were 1210 million and in
less than four years we have added more than 60 million. It is now estimated
that at this rate we will overtake the Chinese population by the middle of the
next decade or thereabout.
It seems nothing has risen faster than our population – not our
productivity, or our industrial base or even our agricultural output. Despite
the general progress in agriculture we are still importing wheat, pulses and
edible oils. Obviously, our efforts have not been enough to feed our own
population and yet the numbers are relentlessly rising. One shudders to imagine
the situation in the country when we become the most populous in the world. It
would not be a moment to be proud of. We should then hang our heads in shame
for not being able to handle something which was well within our own control.
We let slip opportunities away again and again.
My generation has been witness to the rise of our population in
monstrous proportions. In the late 1940s we were 35 crore in undivided India.
The first census in 1951 after independence clocked a figure of a little more
than 36 crore. In “One Life is Not Enough” K Natwar Singh, a former Indian
diplomat and politician, wrote about a meeting of Chou Enlai and Pandit Nehru
in 1960 when Chou was reported to have told Nehru that if “your 400 million and
our 600 million” worked together the face of Asia could be changed. True
enough, the 1961 Census revealed a figure of little more than 430 million –
registering a decadal increase of around 7 crore. Imagine if we had frozen the
population at that level how well-off would we have been with the present level
of development? Unfortunately, we could not even restrict the subsequent
decadal rises at the same level. Last decade saw a rise of 24 crores and the
one before that a rise of 16 crores. We used to be sarcastically told that the
country adds population-wise an Australia every year. And, yet the government
remained impervious and passive.
Even after partition we were over-populated and worse, our poverty was
abject and wide-spread, more so in remote rural areas. It should have been a greater
reason for the government to have launched more proactive campaigns for birth
control. That, however, did not happen. Though India was the first country to
announce a population policy as an integral component of the “First Five Year
Plan” yet the measures taken were far too soft. The “Clinical approach” that
was adopted entailed opening of family planning clinics in the hope that these
would be made use of for acquiring knowledge and wherewithal to prevent the
surging birth numbers. That, however, did not happen. More importantly, these
clinics were few and far between in the rural areas where they were needed the
most. No wonder, for want of any incentives to visit a family planning clinic
the policy proved to be misconceived. The realization of its failure came only
a decade later when a targeted approach was adopted.
In the early 1970s a law was enacted to facilitate medical termination
of pregnancies and the Health & Family Planning minister coined a catchy
slogan “Development is the best contraceptive”. However, despite the truism
being mouthed neither development took place nor contraception was effectively
induced. The population kept surging relentlessly. That is when a ham-handed
approach by Sanjay Gandhi, an extra-constitutional authority, veritably killed
whatever chances of success the weak campaign run by the government had. Taking
advantage of the Emergency, he took the targeted approach to the extreme and
illegally assigned targets for mobilization of people for sterilisation to
teachers, policemen and sundry government officials who were directed to
fulfill them or else face severe penalties. The scramble for achieving the
assigned targets resulted in many indiscretions and on numerous occasions in
utter high-handedness and thereby hangs another story. The net result was
“family planning” became a dirty word so much so that not only the people hated
it, even the succeeding government
changed the name of the ministry supplanting “family welfare” for “family
planning”. As talk of population control became politically unpopular and
electorally dangerous no government wanted to touch it with a barge pole.
The governments that came later just drifted along and despite
population clocks put up at many places we kept on adding numbers. The programme
of controlling births was seemingly put on the back burner. No wonder the
decadal growth rate hit a high of 24.80% in 1971 decelerating only marginally
in 1981 to 24.66%. However, for reasons yet to be identified the growth rate
has been slipping since then, albeit at snails’ pace, and has now in 2011 hit a
low of 17.64%.
Yet the absolute numbers are frightening and pose a serious challenge
for the government for coping with the needs and demands that will be generated
by a burgeoning population with aspirations. Our large numbers have hitherto
been described as “demographic dividend” but what kind of dividend they would
be like has not been indicated. Unfortunately most of the growing numbers of
people we have are not in the workforce for want of jobs or skills or both. The
dividend would have accrued had there been enough numbers of jobs to absorb
them. The country has always been falling short in job-creation to match the
accretions in the job market.
We have to face up to this situation for a few more decades because the
basic reasons, apart from other well-known ones, for rise in our numbers –
birth-rate being higher than the death-rate and the fertility rate, though
falling, is still higher than 2.1 – are not going to disappear in a jiffy. More
importantly, the government has not been effectively tackling the illegal or
legal migrations from Bangladesh and Nepal. Migrants of both these countries
taken together contribute easily around 10% of our population. These apart,
millions of Hindus from Pakistan have fled to this country. The partition
apparently has been nullified with both Pakistan and Bangladesh, unlike India,
hounding out their minorities, mostly Hindus.
One can see a tremendous social stress ahead in the areas of employment,
infrastructure that is already stretched, fast depleting natural resources,
inequitable income distribution and so on. All these have tremendous potential
for causing social tensions resulting in inter-community and intra-community
stresses disrupting the social fabric of the country adversely impacting its
peace and harmony.
The alarming figure of 1.27 billion has appeared while the politicians were in the midst of a slugfest and were unlikely to react and take necessary
measures. Nonetheless, the Prime Minister seems to be wisely toying with the
idea of exporting skilled manpower to countries that might be in need of them.
That will, however, depend on how quickly the Skills Development
Mission is able to build up a substantial bank of human capital.