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Many
predictions have been made about the currently rampaging corona virus that is
infecting thousands and killing hundreds in the industrialized and developed
world. While China claims that life in the epicenter of the pandemic, Wuhan,
has become almost normal it is rampaging through the developed world like never
before. Thousands have fallen (victim) to it in Germany, Italy, Spain, Great
Britain and the US. Economies of these countries are disrupted just as those of
the emerging economies like that of India. It is difficult for a country to
remain under a complete lockdown for long. But the virus is such that unless
there is a complete cessation of all kinds of activities its chain is not
snapped and it continues to thrive.
That
is what the doomsayers are afraid of. How long can the countries be kept locked
in while the pandemic has a free run of the world knocking down thousands of
people with the infection and killing hundred as it sweeps through various
countries. A medicine man was describing the other day a scenario on the TV that
was frightening. He said that nobody knows how long this menace would last – it
could be a year or it could be two years or even more or indefinitely into the
future. It seems to have the capability to send us all to the Stone Age –
dangerous and lethal as it looks like. The immediate misfortune of a long drawn
out lockdown could be a severe famine. For loosening grip of the virus on us
much would depend on how we handle it and how soon we are able to eradicate it.
Lockdown
and social distancing have emerged as major arms to fight the virus. But to
organize millions of people to pay heed to the advisories to observe the
restricted way of life indefinitely is a difficult proposition. Many of those
caught straying out of their houses, particularly in India, are poor and they
come out to get some fresh air, crammed as they are generally 8 to 10 people in
a hundred sq. ft. room.
Indian
economy is slated to lose heavily as the virus looks for new victims in India.
Estimations have been made of a loss of Rs. 32000 crore every day of the
lockdown during the first 21 days. Unemployment has risen from around 5% to 26%
as on 9th April 2020 and 45% of the households have seen a drop in
their incomes. It is mind-blowing. Almost every sector of the economy has been
battered. It must have been heart-wrenching effort for the government to have
announced a lockdown and then extend it knowing as they did its massive
economic costs. The Gross Domestic Product is likely to register a historic low
of 1.9% as indicated by the IMF. Worldwide, too, economies are likely to
contract and global economic growth is likely to suffer. No one wishes to
extend one’s neck out and predict with certainty when the pandemic will cease
allowing resumption of the arrested economic activities.
The
doomsayers say it is not as simple as that – that is predicting a post-Covid
scenario. There could be any number of possibilities. The virus could refuse to
go away or the world is unable to chase it away. The first scenario as painted
by Politico, an US based magazine, is about the great deceleration. The US,
Europe and China, the big three, struggle to recover from the battering of
their respective economies with major fiscal and monetary efforts. The second
scenario is more about China which wins the war with the virus and capitalizes
on it by building ties across Asia, undermining democracy everywhere and
ruthlessly blunting dissent at home. The rosiest scenario is about a V-shaped
recovery and the rich West vaccinating everybody against the virus in the third
world for free.
These
basically depict the American way of looking at things. The scenarios predicted
are generally US-centric. For us it would suffice if we imagine only two
alternatives. One, the virus becomes uncontrollable, mostly because our people
do not observe the guidelines issued by the government. In the process the
Centre has to throw more money at it to contain it. But that pulls in millions
who were climbing out of poverty into middle class back into poverty. Despite
the herculean efforts of the government the economic recovery is slow with
poverty on the rise enhancing social tensions.
The
alternative scenario that we could think of could be that despite the lapses of
various sections of the people the government with its unmitigated efforts is
able to control the pandemic and makes the country largely free of the corona
menace. With the virus shaken off, the government decides to prepare for the
next pandemic which is predicted to be more lethal. The most positive item of
this scenario would be the government, with the help of various international
organizations/institutions, is able to pressurize China to close down its wet
markets. Economically, the government, with active cooperation of the people,
is able to register a V-shaped recovery eventually regaining its economic and
social balance and is able to put its economy back on a firmer footing.
The
above is more of wishful thinking. We are such a divided country, a few
sections of it will never allow the government (run by whichever party) to
continue and do the good work. We start barking at our opponents at the
slightest pretext regardless of the fact whether the opponent is doing work
that is good or not. Look at the way West Bengal government is fighting with
the Centre.
What
all this adds up to is that people in general should act as advised by the
experts, the government at the centre having most of them. If we do that, we
would be lucky if we become a Covid-free country by September next. Only then
Modi will be able to set the wheels of the economy in motion. Hopefully, once the
economy starts moving he will get support from most sections to recover the expenditure
and losses incurred in dealing with the pandemic
*Photo from internet
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